The euro has remained relatively stable around the $1.16 mark at the beginning of a notably quiet trading week. Investors are currently in a holding pattern, eagerly awaiting speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) officials and key economic data from the United States—though the release of the US employment report for September has been delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown. This data pause has left market participants undecided about the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Earlier on Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos shared his confidence that inflation within the Eurozone will eventually align with the ECB’s target level. However, he also issued cautions about several potential risks, including the impact of tariffs, escalating sovereign debt levels, and the danger of a sudden change in investor sentiment that could unsettle markets.
Meanwhile, the European Commission upgraded its growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 to 1.3%, up from the initial 0.9% projection made in its spring outlook. This optimistic revision was driven by a significant increase in exports to the United States, as companies prepared for tariffs introduced during the Trump administration. However, growth is expected to slow down after 2025, with estimates decreasing to 1.2% in 2026—down from the earlier forecast of 1.4%—before rebounding slightly to 1.4% in 2027.
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